2025.02.01
Last year around the same time, the topic of the KPOP bubble was also covered in Season1#4.
In 2023, KPOP CD sales recorded the highest ever, with total annual sales exceeding 100 million copies for the first time in KPOP history, marking the peak of the KPOP bubble.
At the end of that column, the author made a suggestion to all KPOP fans.
“How about we all take a break in 2024? Why not prioritize your own happiness this year?
When BTS returns in full force in 2025, the CD sales war will inevitably come back, so why not take a breather until then?”
So.
Whether this author’s voice reached KPOP fans is unknown, but it turned out to be exactly the case.
2024 truly became a year of rest.
Take a look at the CD sales chart for 2024 released by the Korean CIRCLE CHART below.
Since 2015, CD sales had been on a steady rise, but for the first time in 10 years, they fell below the previous year’s figures. This represents a 19.5% negative growth compared to the previous year. However, it can also be considered that the over 100 million copies sold in 2023 was an anomaly. In fact, in 2024, over 93 million copies were still sold, exceeding 15 million copies compared to 77 million in 2022.
Therefore, just because there is a roughly 20% decrease compared to the previous year, it is still too early to conclude that the KPOP bubble has burst. After all, it is said that those two groups will make a comeback in 2025. The return of the current KPOP king and queen.
Yes, it’s BTS and BLACKPINK.
BTS, after releasing the album “Proof” in 2022, had members go into military service one by one, and finally this year, all members will complete their service and return.
If they release an album this year, it will be their first new song in three years, and there must be many ARMYs (BTS’s fan name) who have been saving up for this long-awaited moment.
Moreover, even during their hiatus as a group, they have been active solo, with Jimin’s “LIKE CRAZY,” released in March 2023, becoming the first KPOP solo artist to reach number one on the US Billboard Hot 100.
This was a remarkable achievement, surpassing PSY’s “Gangnam Style,” which peaked at number two.
Then, Jungkook released the song “Seven” four months later in July, which became a global hit, also reaching number one on the US Billboard Hot 100, following Jimin.
BTS’s fandom, which was already huge, gained new fans due to the success of these two solo songs, and now the potential number of BTS fans is unknown.
BLACKPINK also had their last album “BORN PINK” released in 2022, and like BTS, they will make a comeback after three years. Moreover, like BTS, they have also been active solo, and especially with Rosé’s “APT.” released in October 2024, which quickly took the world by storm, BLACKPINK has also succeeded in gaining new fans.
“APT.” rose to number three on the latest (February 1) US Billboard Hot 100, marking the highest position for a KPOP female artist. Even three months after its release, it continues to maintain its popularity, and it wouldn’t be surprising if it climbs to number one.
It also reached number two on the UK singles chart, setting the highest position for a KPOP female artist.
Recently, at the EDM festival “GMO SONIC” held at Saitama Super Arena, “APT.” created a unique excitement among the EDM-loving crowd, becoming an entity that seems to transcend the KPOP category.
Considering that both BTS and BLACKPINK will make a comeback, it is hard to imagine how KPOP CD sales will trend in 2025.
BTS’s highest initial sales were 3,378,600 copies of “MAP OF THE SOUL: 7” in 2020, which had long held the top spot for initial sales, but in 2023, three groups—NCT DREAM, Stray Kids, and SEVENTEEN—updated BTS’s initial sales record.
In particular, SEVENTEEN’s “SEVENTH HEAVEN” exceeded an astonishing 5 million copies in initial sales.
It is expected that ARMY will aim to surpass this 5 million mark for pride’s sake.
There is even a possibility that they might aim for 6 million or 7 million copies to ensure they are never surpassed again.
BLACKPINK is in the same situation.
“BORN PINK” recorded 1.54 million copies for the highest initial sales for a girl group in 2022, but in 2023, they were surpassed by IVE, NewJeans, and aespa, and are now in fourth place.
Since these three groups are all competing in the 1.6 million range, BLINK (BLACKPINK’s fan name) is surely aiming for over 2 million copies. Simply adding the expected sales figures for BTS and BLACKPINK to the 93 million copies sold in 2024 would bring us back to the era of 100 million copies.
At this point, fans of the groups that have been surpassed will not remain silent.
SEVENTEEN’s members will begin their military service, so it may be physically difficult to surpass them, but Stray Kids, who are currently the leading candidates for the post-BTS era, still have untapped fan potential.
BTS’s comeback may create even more excitement than before.
Among girl groups, aespa, who dominated 2024, is undoubtedly the leading candidate to succeed BLACKPINK.
Having hit two songs in a row with “Supernova” and “Whiplash,” aespa is expanding their fandom year by year, and it cannot be denied that they have the potential to stand shoulder to shoulder with BLACKPINK.
This battle between the new and old girl group queens will be the highlight of 2025!
With this prediction, I will conclude this article.
End
Neko-machi Peko
Head of the SKOOTA KPOP Department
〈Originally a rock music fan who once considered working for Rockin’ On, became interested in KPOP through BTS, then fell for BLACKPINK, and eventually got fully immersed in the KPOP world after becoming a hardcore fan of Kep1er, who debuted from the survival audition show “Girls Planet 999.”〉
