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2025.02.01
Last year around the same time, we discussed the KPOP bubble in Season1#4.
In 2023, KPOP CD sales recorded the highest ever, with total annual sales exceeding 100 million for the first time in KPOP history, marking the peak of the KPOP bubble.
At the end of that column, the author made a suggestion to all KPOP fans.
“How about we all take a break in 2024? Why not prioritize your own happiness this year?
When BTS returns in full force in 2025, the CD sales war will inevitably come back, so why not take a breather until then?”
So said the author.
Whether this author’s voice reached KPOP fans is unknown, but it turned out to be exactly the case.
2024 truly became a year of rest.
Take a look at the CD sales chart for 2024 released by the Korean CIRCLE CHART below.
Since 2015, CD sales had been on a steady rise, but for the first time in 10 years, they fell below the previous year’s figures. This represents a 19.5% decline year-on-year. However, one could argue that the over 100 million sales in 2023 were an anomaly. In fact, in 2024, over 93 million copies were sold, which is still more than 15 million copies above the 77 million sold in 2022.
Therefore, just because there is a roughly 20% decline year-on-year, it is still too early to conclude that the KPOP bubble has burst. After all, it is said that in 2025, those two groups will make a comeback. The return of the current KPOP king and queen.
Yes, it’s BTS and BLACKPINK.
BTS, after releasing their album “Proof” in 2022, had members enlist for military service, and finally this year, all members will complete their service and return.
If they release an album this year, it will be their first new song in three years, and many fans, known as ARMY (BTS’s fan name), must have been saving up for this long-awaited moment.
Moreover, even during their hiatus as a group, they have been active solo, with Jimin’s “LIKE CRAZY,” released in March 2023, becoming the first KPOP solo artist to reach number one on the US Billboard Hot 100.
This was a remarkable achievement, surpassing PSY’s “Gangnam Style,” which peaked at number two.
Then, Jungkook released the song “Seven” four months later in July, which became a global hit, also reaching number one on the US Billboard Hot 100, following Jimin.
BTS’s fandom was already massive, but the success of these two solo songs has likely attracted new fans, making the potential number of BTS fans unknown.
BLACKPINK also released their last album “BORN PINK” in 2022, and like BTS, they will make a comeback after three years. Moreover, like BTS, they have been active solo, and Rosé’s “APT.,” released in October 2024, quickly took the world by storm, successfully attracting new fans for BLACKPINK.
“APT.” rose to number three on the most recent (February 1) US Billboard Hot 100, marking the highest position for a KPOP female artist. Even three months after its release, it continues to maintain its popularity, and it wouldn’t be surprising if it climbs to number one.
It also reached number two on the UK singles chart, setting a record for the highest position for a KPOP female artist.
Recently, at the EDM festival “GMO SONIC” held at Saitama Super Arena, “APT.” stood out even among a crowd mostly made up of EDM fans, showing that it has become a presence beyond the confines of KPOP.
Considering that both BTS and BLACKPINK will be making a comeback, it is hard to imagine how KPOP CD sales will trend in 2025.
BTS’s highest initial sales were 3,378,600 copies of “MAP OF THE SOUL: 7” in 2020, which had long held the top spot for initial sales, but in 2023, three groups—NCT DREAM, Stray Kids, and SEVENTEEN—surpassed BTS’s initial sales record.
In particular, SEVENTEEN’s “SEVENTH HEAVEN” achieved a staggering initial sales of over 5 million copies.
It is expected that ARMY will strive to surpass this 5 million mark for pride’s sake.
There is even a possibility that they might aim for 6 million or 7 million copies to ensure they are never surpassed again.
BLACKPINK is in a similar situation.
“BORN PINK” recorded 1.54 million copies for the highest initial sales for a girl group, but in 2023, they were surpassed by IVE, NewJeans, and aespa, and are now in fourth place.
Since these three groups are all competing in the 1.6 million range, BLINK (BLACKPINK’s fan name) is surely aiming for over 2 million copies. Simply adding the expected sales figures for BTS and BLACKPINK to the 93 million sales in 2024 would bring us back to the era of 100 million sales.
At this point, fans of the groups that have been surpassed will not remain silent.
SEVENTEEN’s members will begin their military service, so it may be physically difficult for them to surpass others, but Stray Kids, who are currently the leading candidates to be the next big thing after BTS, still have untapped fan potential.
BTS’s comeback may lead to even more excitement than before.
Among girl groups, aespa, who dominated 2024, is undoubtedly the leading candidate to succeed BLACKPINK.
Having hit with two consecutive songs, “Supernova” and “Whiplash,” aespa has been expanding their fandom year by year, and it cannot be denied that they have the potential to stand shoulder to shoulder with BLACKPINK.
This battle between the new and old queens of KPOP will be the highlight of 2025!
With that prediction, I will conclude this article.
End
Neko-machi Peko
Head of the SKOOTA KPOP Department
〈Originally a rock music fan who once considered working for Rockin’ On, a music magazine. Became interested in KPOP through BTS and later fell for BLACKPINK, fully immersing in the KPOP world. Became a hardcore fan of Kep1er, who debuted from the survival audition show “Girls Planet 999,” leading to a complete immersion in KPOP.〉
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